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The Formula For Profiling

Updated: Jul 15

July 5th, 2024

Friday Night Live With Chase Hughes
Friday Night Live With Chase Hughes

Getting good at detecting change is 1000 times more effective for your life and your outcomes than learning a bunch of behavioral cues.


What is the SBA? 

It was developed to address a lot of issues:

  • Lack of accuracy.

  • People using 'hunches' or 'feelings' about issues.

  • No universal way to communicate about analysis or profiling.

  • Several 'experts' were doing silly and embarrassing things that bring discredit to everyone - some of them he knows personally.

  • I wanted to create a system that didn’t offend anyone’s profiling methods they use, but only standardizes the diagnostic process and the accuracy of this whole thing, which I think is simply an attempt to be less wrong as often as possible, and less wrong than anyone else.

  • I have a copyright on the SBA, but feel free to share it everywhere. I ran it by the panel, Joe Navarro, and several other experts to make sure it is sound. Even three clinical psychiatrists looked through it and loved it - and have adopted it for diagnostic stuff in their practice.


The Need For SBA

Why are these standards necessary? 

Without a universal standard, behavior analysis can be ridiculously inconsistent. Different professionals use different methods - but most use none whatsoever - and you know who I’m talking about. This can lead to mixed interpretations and conclusions. The SBA aims to fix this by providing a structured, science-based approach that combines insights from psychology, sociology, linguistics, and neuroscience.


Key Components of SBA

The SBA is built around three main components:

  1. The C5 Process

  2. The Behavior Analysis Formula

  3. The Findings Score System

These elements together create a solid framework for understanding and interpreting human behavior.


The C5 Process

This stands for Change, Context, Clusters, Culture, and Checklist. Each part is crucial for behavior analysis:

  1. Change: This is all about spotting differences. Think about someone you know well. If they suddenly start acting out of character, that's a "change." In behavior analysis, noticing these shifts from someone's usual behavior can tell us a lot about what's going on with them.

  2. Context: We consider the situation and environment. Why is someone behaving a certain way? Context matters. Think about how your behavior might change in a job interview versus hanging out with friends. The setting influences how we act, and we need to keep that in mind.

  3. Clusters: Instead of focusing on one behavior, we look at groups of behaviors, or clusters, that together give a clearer picture. For example, if someone avoids eye contact, fidgets, and their voice is shaky, these combined behaviors are more telling together than any single behavior on its own.

  4. Culture: This is about understanding that behavior isn't universal. It varies across different cultures. A gesture in one culture might mean something entirely different in another. So, we need to factor in cultural background to avoid misinterpretation.

  5. Checklist: Finally, we HAVE a checklist to identify behaviors that might indicate stress, deception, or avoidance. This involves a deep assessment process that incorporates changes, context, clusters, and cultural influences. It’s a way to ensure we’re not missing anything and that our analysis is as ‘less wrong’ as it can be.


Behavior Analysis Formula

Next up is the Behavior Analysis Formula, this thing follows a scientific method to ensure our findings are precise and less wrong. The formula is:


  • Pace + Localization = Syndrome

  • Syndrome + Context = Differential Diagnosis

Now in Behavior:

  • Change + Cluster = Alert

  • Alert + Context = Probability

  • Probability - Culture = Findings

This helps us systematically evaluate behaviors and draw informed conclusions.

For example, if we see a significant change and a cluster of behaviors, it triggers an alert. We then evaluate this alert within its specific context to determine the probability of deception. Finally, we adjust this probability by considering cultural influences to reach a final finding.


Finding Score System

The Findings Score System is how we quantify our level of certainty in our analysis. It ranges from 0 to 5, similar to diagnostic scales in medicine. Here’s a quick overview:

  • 0 - Indeterminate: Not enough evidence to form a conclusion.

  • 1 - Low Confidence: Minimal indicators present, lots of uncertainty.

  • 2 - Mild Confidence: Some evidence, but not strong.

  • 3 - Moderate Confidence: Reasonable support for the conclusion.

  • 4 - High Confidence: Strong, consistent indicators, high certainty.

  • 5 - Near Certainty: Overwhelming evidence, clear indicators, though absolute certainty is rare.

This scale encourages us to recognize the limits of our certainty and promote rigorous, evidence-based analysis.


Practical Application

A practical example to bring this all together. Imagine Dr. Lee, a behavioral expert, is analyzing a video interview to see if the interviewee, Mr. Thompson, is being deceptive.

  1. Change: Dr. Lee notes deviations from Mr. Thompson’s usual behavior, like a sudden increase in blink rate.

  2. Context: The interview involves sensitive questions about a controversial project.

  3. Clusters: During these questions, Mr. Thompson shows behaviors like postural retreat, increased blinking, and lip-licking.

  4. Culture: Dr. Lee considers Mr. Thompson’s cultural background to discern if these behaviors are typical or deceptive.

  5. Checklist: Using the Behavioral Table of Elements, Dr. Lee correlates these behaviors with known indicators of deception.

After evaluating these factors, Dr. Lee concludes with high diagnostic confidence that Mr. Thompson is likely being deceptive, using the Findings Score System to rate this confidence.

These standards not only unify everybody’s weird personal methods but they also help us build a global community of professionals dedicated to understanding human behavior. Using this universal system allows us all to advance the field, conduct way more collaborative research, and develop cooler shit for the future.




The Behavioral Table of Elements:


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